Mail & Parcel
The postal services market is going through a period of radical change, primarily linked to digital transformation, which has influenced the volume of letters and parcels in circulation The continuing structural decline in traditional mail volumes, replaced by digital forms of communication (e-mail, instant messaging, etc ), is accompanied by an increase in the volume of parcels sent.
In particular, for the mail segment, the structural downturn in the market continued in 2022 and there was a significant decrease in shipments (-5.2% compared to 2021), as an inevitable consequence of digitisation processes and the transition from physical to electronic forms of communication (e-substitution) in 2023, the decline in market volumes is confirmed (-5% compared to 2022), although slowing down compared to the pre-pandemic period, against substantial stability in value (+0 03% compared to 2022).
The parcel sector, after its exponential increase during the pandemic, experienced a period of uncertainty in 2022 that did not, however, affect the value of the market.
The effects that conditioned the slowdown of the growth trend recorded in 2022 can be summarised as the generalised increase in costs with the consequent decrease in consumer purchasing power, and the lower propensity for private purchases (including on-line).
For the year 2022, the market value was higher than in 2021, but still below pre-pandemic levels
n 2023, the value of the parcel market is expected to grow, mainly due to the positive trend in e-commerce. According to the latest estimates for the current year, on-line purchases are showing signs of recovery with a value of €35 billion, up 8% compared to 2022 (but largely suffering from the effects of inflation) and with annual growth in absolute terms returning to the standard level of the pre-pandemic period.
Beauty is the most dynamic sector in 2023 with a higher annual growth rate in terms of value (+11%) than the average rate of product e-commerce purchases; Computers & electronics and publishing show an increase in value in line with the average (+8%), while the growth in purchases of Clothing and Furnishing & Home Living is positive but more contained (+7%); Food & Grocery, which in 2022 was the most dynamic sector with an annual trend of +15% shows a slight contraction (-0 5%) in 2023.
The logistics market in Italy is seeing steady growth in the outsourcing of logistics services by industrial and commercial operators to specialised entities (outsourcers) capable of covering the entire value chain.
In particular, the market for integrated Logistics services in 2021 was worth around €12 billion, up 16% on the previous year, thanks in part to the increase in international transport flows, which has resumed at a faster pace than in the pre-pandemic years: growth of +7% is estimated for 2022 and +5% for 2023 Further growth is expected in the future, albeit at a more moderate pace.
The market, although very competitive, is relatively unconcentrated, however, some concentration phenomena have taken hold, typically stimulated by major industrial players seeking integration synergies between different stages of the supply chain.
In particular, for the mail segment, the structural downturn in the market continued in 2022 and there was a significant decrease in shipments (-5.2% compared to 2021), as an inevitable consequence of digitisation processes and the transition from physical to electronic forms of communication (e-substitution) in 2023, the decline in market volumes is confirmed (-5% compared to 2022), although slowing down compared to the pre-pandemic period, against substantial stability in value (+0 03% compared to 2022).
The parcel sector, after its exponential increase during the pandemic, experienced a period of uncertainty in 2022 that did not, however, affect the value of the market.
The effects that conditioned the slowdown of the growth trend recorded in 2022 can be summarised as the generalised increase in costs with the consequent decrease in consumer purchasing power, and the lower propensity for private purchases (including on-line).
For the year 2022, the market value was higher than in 2021, but still below pre-pandemic levels
n 2023, the value of the parcel market is expected to grow, mainly due to the positive trend in e-commerce. According to the latest estimates for the current year, on-line purchases are showing signs of recovery with a value of €35 billion, up 8% compared to 2022 (but largely suffering from the effects of inflation) and with annual growth in absolute terms returning to the standard level of the pre-pandemic period.
Beauty is the most dynamic sector in 2023 with a higher annual growth rate in terms of value (+11%) than the average rate of product e-commerce purchases; Computers & electronics and publishing show an increase in value in line with the average (+8%), while the growth in purchases of Clothing and Furnishing & Home Living is positive but more contained (+7%); Food & Grocery, which in 2022 was the most dynamic sector with an annual trend of +15% shows a slight contraction (-0 5%) in 2023.
The logistics market in Italy is seeing steady growth in the outsourcing of logistics services by industrial and commercial operators to specialised entities (outsourcers) capable of covering the entire value chain.
In particular, the market for integrated Logistics services in 2021 was worth around €12 billion, up 16% on the previous year, thanks in part to the increase in international transport flows, which has resumed at a faster pace than in the pre-pandemic years: growth of +7% is estimated for 2022 and +5% for 2023 Further growth is expected in the future, albeit at a more moderate pace.
The market, although very competitive, is relatively unconcentrated, however, some concentration phenomena have taken hold, typically stimulated by major industrial players seeking integration synergies between different stages of the supply chain.
Postepay Services
The latest available data on the Italian payment cards market show significant growth of the total domestic transactions, which in September 2023 surpassed €322 billion, an increase of 17.8% compared to September 2022 due to the rise in inflation rates the number of transactions grew by 23 2% over the same period last year to 7 2 billion, a sign of an increasingly more consolidated daily use of cards, also thanks to a greater propensity and acceptance of the use of digital payments by merchants (e-commerce and contactless payments).
Debit card transactions grew by 22% compared to September 2022 and accounted for more than half of the total transactions (59%), with transactions exceeding €187 billion (+15% compared to September 2022).
Also prepaid cards are advancing at a fast pace (+17% of transactions and +13% in terms of value compared to September 2022), for a total amount of more than €52 billion, thanks to the steady development of e-commerce and increased penetration at physical points he first nine months of 2023 were also positive for credit cards, ending the period on an upward trend with transactions up 36% and value up 29% compared to September 2022, with a total amount of more than €82 billion.
At 30 September 2023, the number of active cards on the market exceeded 93.8 million, up 1% compared to the stock of active cards at 31 December 2022: the greatest growth was recorded on debit cards, which grew by 1.3% compared to 31 December 2022, totalling more than 49.6 million active cards he stock of prepaid cards remained stable, the number of which exceeded 30 million (+0.3% compared to the figure at the end of December 2022) Credit cards also grew (+1.3% compared to 31 December 2022), with more than 13.5 million active cards.
The mobile telephony market, based on the latest available data, showed a slight increase in the stock of Human-to-Human SIMs compared to 2022, a sign of a market that is now saturated but shows dynamism in the stock of individual operators in particular, the share of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) grew, eroding the market shares of the other top players, sitting at 16%. Poste Mobile, which accounts for 35% of MVNOs, remained essentially stable (-0.3% compared to December 2022) with a market share of 5.6% total lines at 30 September 2023 amounted to 108.5 million (+1.3% compared to the same period in 2022) including 29.7 million Machine to Machine (M2M) SIMs (+3 7% compared to the same period of 2022).
During 2023, the energy market experienced a gradual rebalancing after the rise in commodity prices, including primarily gas, with significant repercussions on the electricity market in the second quarter of 2023, the gas and electricity market saw a significant reduction in wholesale gas and electricity prices as the risk of gas shortages in the later part of the winter was gradually overcome in fact, winter temperatures were relatively mild and the diversification of European gas supplies made it possible to get through the winter period while coping with the risk of a shortage of the raw material in the third quarter of 2023, the stabilisation of prices in the gas and electricity wholesale markets continued, and during this period the filling phase of gas storage took place at a good pace, in preparation for the winter season.
At the end of September 2023, the Italian and European stocks were close to full.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the gradual reduction and stabilisation of prices on the gas and electricity wholesale markets continued, thanks to the above-average seasonal temperatures recorded and the low demand for gas on both the residential and industrial and thermoelectric consumption fronts he balance between gas supply and demand at national and European level was positive in the first part of the winter, which led to a further drop in market prices in the final part of the year.
However, the gas market remains characterised by uncertainties stemming from the international geopolitical and economic environment, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2022, resulting in price volatility, which is also reflected in the electricity market.
Against this context, the institutions continued a gradual reduction of the concessions introduced during 2022 to cope with rising gas and electricity wholesale prices.
Debit card transactions grew by 22% compared to September 2022 and accounted for more than half of the total transactions (59%), with transactions exceeding €187 billion (+15% compared to September 2022).
Also prepaid cards are advancing at a fast pace (+17% of transactions and +13% in terms of value compared to September 2022), for a total amount of more than €52 billion, thanks to the steady development of e-commerce and increased penetration at physical points he first nine months of 2023 were also positive for credit cards, ending the period on an upward trend with transactions up 36% and value up 29% compared to September 2022, with a total amount of more than €82 billion.
At 30 September 2023, the number of active cards on the market exceeded 93.8 million, up 1% compared to the stock of active cards at 31 December 2022: the greatest growth was recorded on debit cards, which grew by 1.3% compared to 31 December 2022, totalling more than 49.6 million active cards he stock of prepaid cards remained stable, the number of which exceeded 30 million (+0.3% compared to the figure at the end of December 2022) Credit cards also grew (+1.3% compared to 31 December 2022), with more than 13.5 million active cards.
The mobile telephony market, based on the latest available data, showed a slight increase in the stock of Human-to-Human SIMs compared to 2022, a sign of a market that is now saturated but shows dynamism in the stock of individual operators in particular, the share of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) grew, eroding the market shares of the other top players, sitting at 16%. Poste Mobile, which accounts for 35% of MVNOs, remained essentially stable (-0.3% compared to December 2022) with a market share of 5.6% total lines at 30 September 2023 amounted to 108.5 million (+1.3% compared to the same period in 2022) including 29.7 million Machine to Machine (M2M) SIMs (+3 7% compared to the same period of 2022).
During 2023, the energy market experienced a gradual rebalancing after the rise in commodity prices, including primarily gas, with significant repercussions on the electricity market in the second quarter of 2023, the gas and electricity market saw a significant reduction in wholesale gas and electricity prices as the risk of gas shortages in the later part of the winter was gradually overcome in fact, winter temperatures were relatively mild and the diversification of European gas supplies made it possible to get through the winter period while coping with the risk of a shortage of the raw material in the third quarter of 2023, the stabilisation of prices in the gas and electricity wholesale markets continued, and during this period the filling phase of gas storage took place at a good pace, in preparation for the winter season.
At the end of September 2023, the Italian and European stocks were close to full.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the gradual reduction and stabilisation of prices on the gas and electricity wholesale markets continued, thanks to the above-average seasonal temperatures recorded and the low demand for gas on both the residential and industrial and thermoelectric consumption fronts he balance between gas supply and demand at national and European level was positive in the first part of the winter, which led to a further drop in market prices in the final part of the year.
However, the gas market remains characterised by uncertainties stemming from the international geopolitical and economic environment, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2022, resulting in price volatility, which is also reflected in the electricity market.
Against this context, the institutions continued a gradual reduction of the concessions introduced during 2022 to cope with rising gas and electricity wholesale prices.
Financial Services
Based on available estimates provided by the Italian Banking Association (ABI), at the end December 2023, customer deposits of all banks in Italy, represented by deposits from resident customers (current accounts, certificates of deposit and repurchase agreements) and bonds, decreased by 1.5% on an annual basis, settling at approximately €2,028 billion (€-31 billion compared to the previous year).
This trend reflected a significant reduction in deposits from resident customers of around €71 billion (-3.8% y/y), partially offset by a recovery of around €40 billion in bond deposits (+19.1% y/y).
In December 2023, the average cost of bank funding (which includes the return on deposits, bonds and repos from households and non-financial companies) was around 1.16% (0.61% at 31 December 2022).
Bank loans to Italian residents (private sector plus general government net of repos with central counterparties) amounted to approximately €1,670 billion in December 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Loans to households and non-financial companies amounted to €1,296 billion, registering a negative annual change of 2.2%. The decline in volumes is consistent with the slowdown in economic growth, which is depressing the demand for loans: in December 2023, the volume of loans to businesses and households fell by 2.2 % year-on-year.
Asset Management
Assogestioni data show, at 31 December 202355, total assets of €2,338 billion, up 5.8% on the €2,210 billion at the end of 2022.
With regards to portfolio management, assets amounted to approximately €1,095 billion, up 4.3% from €1,050 billion at 31 December 2022. With regards to Collective asset management, assets went from about €1,160 billion at the end of December 2022 to around €1,243 billion at the end December 2023 (+7.1%). With regards to open-ended investment funds alone, client assets stood at around €1,149 billion at the end of December 2023, up 6.9% from roughly €1,075 billion at the end of December 2022.
In terms of net inflows, the asset management industry recorded a negative balance in 2023 of approximately €49.6 billion (compared to a positive balance of €12.9 billion in 2022).
This trend reflected a significant reduction in deposits from resident customers of around €71 billion (-3.8% y/y), partially offset by a recovery of around €40 billion in bond deposits (+19.1% y/y).
In December 2023, the average cost of bank funding (which includes the return on deposits, bonds and repos from households and non-financial companies) was around 1.16% (0.61% at 31 December 2022).
Bank loans to Italian residents (private sector plus general government net of repos with central counterparties) amounted to approximately €1,670 billion in December 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Loans to households and non-financial companies amounted to €1,296 billion, registering a negative annual change of 2.2%. The decline in volumes is consistent with the slowdown in economic growth, which is depressing the demand for loans: in December 2023, the volume of loans to businesses and households fell by 2.2 % year-on-year.
Asset Management
Assogestioni data show, at 31 December 202355, total assets of €2,338 billion, up 5.8% on the €2,210 billion at the end of 2022.
With regards to portfolio management, assets amounted to approximately €1,095 billion, up 4.3% from €1,050 billion at 31 December 2022. With regards to Collective asset management, assets went from about €1,160 billion at the end of December 2022 to around €1,243 billion at the end December 2023 (+7.1%). With regards to open-ended investment funds alone, client assets stood at around €1,149 billion at the end of December 2023, up 6.9% from roughly €1,075 billion at the end of December 2022.
In terms of net inflows, the asset management industry recorded a negative balance in 2023 of approximately €49.6 billion (compared to a positive balance of €12.9 billion in 2022).
Insurance Services
During 2023, the market continued to be affected by the uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and by the still high levels of inflation and interest rates, albeit slowing compared to the beginning of the year.
During the year, net inflows in the life segment were negative and amounted to -€22.8 billion, down by about €40 billion compared to the balance recorded in 2022, when the amount was positive and close to €16 billion. This result is attributable to the decline in premiums (-3.2% compared to 2022) linked exclusively to Class III life products and to the increase in outflows (+45%), mainly due to higher lapses related to Class I life policies (a phenomenon attributable to the rise in rates that prompted savers to look for products with higher returns). At the end of December 2023, the lapse rate was 10.63% compared to 6.71% in 2022.
The new individual life insurance policies in the Italian market, based on the latest available data, amounted to approximately €74.2 billion at the end of December 2023, a negative change of 3.3% compared to 2022. If new Life premiums reported by EU companies is also taken into account, the figure reached €82.5 billion, down 5.2% compared to 2022.
Analysing the data by line of business, premiums from Class I, which confirmed its leading role in the life business with a 76% share of the total at the end of December 2023, amounted to €56.3 billion at the end of December 2023, +11.9% compared to the previous year. The collection of Class III products (in the exclusive form of unit-linked products), at €14.8 billion, was down (-37.5%) compared to the figure at the end of December 2022. Although residual, inflows of capitalisation products amounted to €0.8 billion and decreased by 27.6% compared to 2022. The volumes of new premiums relating to long-term health policies (Class IV) continued to be limited (approximately €111 million), and up (+30.6%) compared to 2022.
New contributions relating to the management of pension funds (+39.8%) compared to 2022.
Single premiums continued to be the preferred form of payment for policyholders, representing 95.2% of total premiums written and 60.6% of policies by number.
With regards to distribution channel, 64.7% of new business was brokered through banks and post offices until the end of December 2023, with premium revenue of €48 billion, a decrease (-1.3%) compared to 2022. On the other hand, with regard to the entire agency channel, the volume of new business distributed reached €15.7 billion in 2023, marking an increase in volumes of 1.1% compared to the previous year and with an incidence on total brokered business of 21.1%.
P&C Business
As regards the P&C insurance market, based on the available official data81 at the end of the third quarter of 2023, total direct Italian premiums, also including policies sold by Italian and overseas undertakings, amounted to €31.2 billion, up 7.5% compared with the same period of 2022, when the sector recorded growth of 6.3%. The above-mentioned increase is attributable, in particular, to the development of the Non-Motor sector (+8%). Premiums in the Motor sector rose (+7%), mainly due to the increase in premiums in the Land Vehicle Insurance business (+12.1%) and partly also in the Motor Third Party Liability business, whose premiums grew by 5.4%.
With regard to the Non-Motor class, all the main insurance classes contributed to the aforementioned 8% growth during the period: i) Health insurance with a volume of €2,930 million and growth of 13.3%; ii) Personal injuries class with premiums of €2,807 million and an increase of 4.3%; iii) General TPL class with premiums of €3,668 million and an increase of 7.3%; iv) Other damage to property class with an increase of 7.7% and total volumes of €3,022 million; v) finally, Fire and natural elements class with a total production of €2,198 million and an increase of 9.1%. Also of note is the growth achieved by the Credit and Legal Assistance classes, +14.4% and +7.6% respectively, with total premiums of €677 million and €812 million respectively.
As regards the distribution channels, the agency channel is confirmed as the leader with a market share at the end of September 2023 of 72.4% in line with the figure recorded in the same period of 2022. Brokers represent the second P&C premium distribution channel with a market share of 9.4% (8.7% at the end of September 2022), while bank and post office branches recorded a market share of 9.2% (9.2% in the first nine months of 2022).
As regards direct sales as a whole (including distance, telephone and internet sales), at the end of September 2023, there was an incidence of 8.5% (down compared to 8.7% in the corresponding period of 2022). The remaining 0.4% (unchanged from the figure at the end of the third quarter of 2022) relates to premiums brokered by qualified financial consultants.
During the year, net inflows in the life segment were negative and amounted to -€22.8 billion, down by about €40 billion compared to the balance recorded in 2022, when the amount was positive and close to €16 billion. This result is attributable to the decline in premiums (-3.2% compared to 2022) linked exclusively to Class III life products and to the increase in outflows (+45%), mainly due to higher lapses related to Class I life policies (a phenomenon attributable to the rise in rates that prompted savers to look for products with higher returns). At the end of December 2023, the lapse rate was 10.63% compared to 6.71% in 2022.
The new individual life insurance policies in the Italian market, based on the latest available data, amounted to approximately €74.2 billion at the end of December 2023, a negative change of 3.3% compared to 2022. If new Life premiums reported by EU companies is also taken into account, the figure reached €82.5 billion, down 5.2% compared to 2022.
Analysing the data by line of business, premiums from Class I, which confirmed its leading role in the life business with a 76% share of the total at the end of December 2023, amounted to €56.3 billion at the end of December 2023, +11.9% compared to the previous year. The collection of Class III products (in the exclusive form of unit-linked products), at €14.8 billion, was down (-37.5%) compared to the figure at the end of December 2022. Although residual, inflows of capitalisation products amounted to €0.8 billion and decreased by 27.6% compared to 2022. The volumes of new premiums relating to long-term health policies (Class IV) continued to be limited (approximately €111 million), and up (+30.6%) compared to 2022.
New contributions relating to the management of pension funds (+39.8%) compared to 2022.
Single premiums continued to be the preferred form of payment for policyholders, representing 95.2% of total premiums written and 60.6% of policies by number.
With regards to distribution channel, 64.7% of new business was brokered through banks and post offices until the end of December 2023, with premium revenue of €48 billion, a decrease (-1.3%) compared to 2022. On the other hand, with regard to the entire agency channel, the volume of new business distributed reached €15.7 billion in 2023, marking an increase in volumes of 1.1% compared to the previous year and with an incidence on total brokered business of 21.1%.
P&C Business
As regards the P&C insurance market, based on the available official data81 at the end of the third quarter of 2023, total direct Italian premiums, also including policies sold by Italian and overseas undertakings, amounted to €31.2 billion, up 7.5% compared with the same period of 2022, when the sector recorded growth of 6.3%. The above-mentioned increase is attributable, in particular, to the development of the Non-Motor sector (+8%). Premiums in the Motor sector rose (+7%), mainly due to the increase in premiums in the Land Vehicle Insurance business (+12.1%) and partly also in the Motor Third Party Liability business, whose premiums grew by 5.4%.
With regard to the Non-Motor class, all the main insurance classes contributed to the aforementioned 8% growth during the period: i) Health insurance with a volume of €2,930 million and growth of 13.3%; ii) Personal injuries class with premiums of €2,807 million and an increase of 4.3%; iii) General TPL class with premiums of €3,668 million and an increase of 7.3%; iv) Other damage to property class with an increase of 7.7% and total volumes of €3,022 million; v) finally, Fire and natural elements class with a total production of €2,198 million and an increase of 9.1%. Also of note is the growth achieved by the Credit and Legal Assistance classes, +14.4% and +7.6% respectively, with total premiums of €677 million and €812 million respectively.
As regards the distribution channels, the agency channel is confirmed as the leader with a market share at the end of September 2023 of 72.4% in line with the figure recorded in the same period of 2022. Brokers represent the second P&C premium distribution channel with a market share of 9.4% (8.7% at the end of September 2022), while bank and post office branches recorded a market share of 9.2% (9.2% in the first nine months of 2022).
As regards direct sales as a whole (including distance, telephone and internet sales), at the end of September 2023, there was an incidence of 8.5% (down compared to 8.7% in the corresponding period of 2022). The remaining 0.4% (unchanged from the figure at the end of the third quarter of 2022) relates to premiums brokered by qualified financial consultants.
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